Black Swan Theory

Black Swan Theory – I had not heard of this, blew me away given the current state of the world.

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
3.  The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.

Unlike the philosophical “black swan problem“, the “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More technically, in the scientific monograph Silent Risk , Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as “stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability”.

This is just the sort of thing that makes me think about how things are and how they have gotten that way.  While I have doubts that it explains some important events it would surely give us some insight to some of the events that we have witnessed recently and historically.

Thank you Wikipedia!

I’m Done (for now)

codeI’m calling the site updates done at least the core changes for now. I’m starting to add content and get used to it.

While I’m sure that there will be a few more changes to tweak it I just don’t see that I’ll be going for another do over in the near term. WooHoo! Now all I have to do is figure out what I want to do with it.

Site Updates

codeI decided that I needed and want to do some fairly extensive remodeling on this site and have begun the process to redesign, revamp and reengineer.

Some things have needed a bit of love for quite a while now, so it begins.  New theme and lots of back end work to get that working and looking like I think it should.  If something isn’t working quite right that will be the most likely reason.

With any luck this will all be done soon . . .

Old (ish) Music Videos

guy-playing-gutarI visited a restaurant recently—the food was pretty good—what really tripped my trigger was the non-stop play of old music videos from MTV and VH1 on one of the sets of monitors scattered through the place.

Call it middle age or perhaps the sound smacked the big red button mysteriously labeled “Nostalgia Fetish” and one of my personal OCD queues kicked in. Fascination takes over I’m locked in.

Wow! It doesn’t matter that I’ve seen these before—some of them many times (especially in their original context time wise)—in other places at other times. I am loving it. This is cool, I need to not just be able to see these again I want need to be able to remember these and enjoy them again.

I have the technology to do this. How cool to have lots of these on the NAS so that I can play them on the big screen (Living Room TV at my house) and let them randomly flow through my environment.

Time for me to start searching, collecting, curating a new collection where I can assemble some of these incredible old(ish) pieces of eye (and ear)-candy that cause the neural cascades that bring me the memories of times and places while not necessarily forgotten but certainly displaced by current events and the day-today we all inhabit.

I will start posting some of these here—resonant memories—at least links to them. If nothing else, I’ll be able to access them whenever I want.

Dubai Jetmen

Dubai Jetmen flying

If you haven’t seen this before then there are really only two possible reactions. Wow! or total fear. Personally I wanted to get me one as quickly as I could. Watching these and listening to the guy who sounds like Jacques Cousteau talk about flying like this made me want to strap a Kevlar wing with 4 jet engines to my back and jump off a helicopter and blast around like Iron Man. If this is the future of personal flight jet-pack wise I want in. Don’t ya just know that these will be in one of the blockbuster movie franchises soon.

Another Start

codeIt really doesn’t seem that long ago I restarted this site with great intentions and what I thought was a clearer focus on what I wanted to do with it.

Ya, can see where we are now, right? I hated the (silly) term “Green Field” when it was used at a place where I work to describe starting over with no data, so I won’t use it.

Due to some issues–mostly mine–as well as a few bad choices for some of the tools used for the previous version of this site it was a better choice to start clean.  Not to point fingers, some of the plugins for these sites aren’t perfect and some don’t really do what the say they will, some don’t even work at all.

I’d like to believe that this time it will be different and better, at this point all I can believe is that it is a fresh start and it will be better.